| Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM (Open) | CO (Open) LA (Landrieu) NH (Sununu) |
AK (Stevens) MN (Coleman) MS (Wicker) NC (Dole) OR (Smith) |
KY (McConnell) ME (Collins) |
Safe D:
VA (Open)
Races to Watch:
GA (Chambliss)
KS (Roberts)
NE (Open)
NJ (Lautenberg)
OK (Inhofe)
TX (Cornyn)
Today’s Ratings Changes:
Under the rubric we use, if a race is in a “likely” category, that means “an upset cannot be completely ruled out.” We no longer think an upset is imaginable in Virginia under any reasonably foreseeable circumstances. Mark Warner is still wildly popular while Jim Gilmore’s name is mud. Warner has a 44-to-1 cash advantage while Gilmore barely eked out a win at a party convention his supporters had orchestrated to favor him. Obama now leads by three in a state that Kerry lost by more than eight. Oh, and Warner himself, who has never led by less than twenty, has now staked out a nearly thirty-point advantage.
Obviously in politics, anything is possible. A hidden scandal could always destroy a candidate at the last minute. But such unknowns can’t factor into race ratings – if they did, no race could ever go into the “safe” category. What’s more, Warner is a highly skilled politician who is adept at playing it safe; he is probably among the least likely to get ambushed by a late-breaking surprise. If he were to somehow lose at this point, it would be one of the biggest shockers in political history. But we feel quite confident that nothing like that is going to happen, and that Warner will cruise to victory.
Democrats, already in the driver’s seat here, got an added boost when winger Steve Pearce narrowly edged out “moderate” Heather Wilson for the GOP senate nomination. And the more New Mexico gets to know Steve Pearce, the less it seems they like him – Tom Udall is about thirty points ahead in the latest polling. And it’s more than shown in fundraising, where Udall now has five times what Pearce has on hand. What’s more, NRSC chief John Ensign all but admitted his commimttee was writing off this race. There’s no question that Udall has a strong lead here now.
Jeanne Shaheen has staked out a remarkably consistent ten-point lead in New Hampshire, leading many to ask if John Sununu is this cycle’s Rick Santorum. We think it’s certainly starting to look that way. No Republican, it appears, has ever come back from such a large deficit with this little time left on the clock. Sununu’s biggest advantage right now is that he’s the most endangered GOP incumbent, which means he’s first on the NRSC’s list of priorities. That’s not a place any Republican really wants to be, but it means that Shaheen can’t afford to let up, despite the advantages she now has.
This race is not as clear-cut as, say, New Hampshire, but we no longer feel that it’s a true tossup. It looks as though recent unrelenting attacks on Bob Schaffer have taken their toll, giving Mark Udall nine- and ten-point leads in four consecutive polls. Colorado, like Virginia, is another state that Kerry lost but where Obama shows a lot of promise. (And of course, we have our convention there.) However, Schaffer is pretty competitive in the cash department, and the NRSC hasn’t yet bailed here. Nonetheless, it’s hard to say that his chances of victory are equal to Udall’s, hence our change.
Jeff Merkley won a tough primary contest back in May and then went on to post far better fundraising numbers in the second quarter than he ever had before. His polling trend line looks good, and Obama has had consistent ten-point leads here. Gordon Smith’s “moderate” image still holds a lot of power, though, and he’s squeezing every advantage out of his incumbency. Merkley has a lot more work to do here, but this race is starting to get closer.
If two things happen here, this race might go from snoozer to potentially, maybe, possibly interesting: First, Jim Martin needs to win the August 5th Democratic run-off and second, Barack Obama needs to follow through on his plan to register a half a million new black voters in Georgia. If, however, the Bush-loving walking train-wreck that is Vernon Jones is the Democratic nominee, then this will still be a race to watch – but for all the wrong reasons.
Hard to see how ME is Likely R, while MN rates just Lean R. The R money advantage is about the same in both races, and the polling is virtually identical (but for the weird Ras outliers in MN). Seems to me that MN should be moved to Likely R — it looks a lot more like ME than AK, MS, and OR.
Does it not warrant at least a mention in ‘Races to Watch’?
I have Maine Lean R because I look at it kind of on the same level as North Carolina. And Kentucky deserves to be at least Likely R.
Favored D
VA
NM
Lean D
CO
NH
LA
Too Close to Call
AK
MS
OR
Lean R
MN
ME
NC
KY
Favored R
TX
KS
OK
GA
NE
ID
Outlook: D +6-9
Is there a single poll out there giving Stevens more than a 2 point lead? I know he has a primary challenger, but I don’t think anyone believe Stevens will lose his primary. This one is easily a tossup.
Alaska–move up to toss up.
Maine–move up to lean R.
North Carolina–move down to likely R.
Kentucky–move up to likely R.
Idaho–move up to watch.
Even though the CoH and fundraising isn’t as lop-sided as VA-Sen, Udall’s lead has been consistantly on par with Warner’s lead, and there hasn’t been any sign of Pearce getting any traction. On top of that, Udall has been blanketing the airwaves with ads (here in Albuquerque, since the middle of June there has not been a single day where I haven’t seen a Udall ad) while Pearce has had nothing going on since the end of the Republican primary (I haven’t seen a single ad from Steve Pearce). I don’t see any reason for this race not to be ranked as Safe right now.
But how can you not have KS-Sen as Likely R? Why is everyone writing Slattery off just days after an independent poll showed him down by only single digits?
Also, I agree with the commenter above that AK-Sen as GOP-lean is one slot too conservative.
AK and MS ought to be moved to tossups, ME should be moved to Lean R, Kentucky should be moved to Likely R and Idaho should replace it on Races to Watch, IMO.
I’m tempted to throw Oregon to the tossup category with the latest polling but objectively we need more data for that.
Alaska due to it’s past partisan bent you have to be careful with (particularly given what happened with the Knowles-Murkowski race where an unpopular Republican incumbent rallied the base to win). Also no matter how inept or corrupt you have to be careful with these old incumbents. Just look at Conrad Burns who was hellbent on his own personal destruction and still only lost by the most narrow of margins. Also need to see if his primary opponent gains any tractions.
Mississippi I might move into the tossup category. History shows it should break Republican at the end. However historic black turnout might be enough to save Wicker (even if it’s not enough for us to actually take the state).
North Carolina polls are not as positive as they were in the past. Tempting to move that back to likely Republican. But the fact the Republicans are panicking is a good sign. Or is it a better sign when they are over confident like Allen was in Virginia?
Hey folks; I’m not sure why, but as we were posting this, we didn’t include Kentucky as “Likely Republican”. We actually moved that race to Likely R from Safe R last month. I’ve edited the post to clear up the confusion.
As for the rest of the changes you want us to make, make your own damn charts. 🙂
First off, we just need to get a few technical things cleaned up. In the “Today’s Ratings Changes” section:
– Oregon (OPEN)…Is Senator Gordon Smith not an incumbent? This should say: Oregon (Smith)
– Georgia (OPEN)…Same as above, I believe Senator Chambliss is the incumbent, so: Georgia (Chambliss)
As for the ratings themselves:
– Glad to see someone finally agrees to take Virginia to the “SAFE D” and move New Mexico to “LIKELY D” column, although I understand what people saying with why not NM in the “SAFE D” as well. One column shift at a time.
– No arguments with CO & NH being in “LEAN D” given the circumstances. Hopefully they get closer to Likely later.
– NO TOSSUPS? I think given the circumstances, I’d put both Alaska and Mississippi-B in the toss-up, with Oregon being real close, but Lean R now.
– Lean R should include Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina, & Maine.
– Likely in my mind are those that are pretty much going to be out of reach, just not quite safe, so that goes Kentucky, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, & Texas.
– Not touching AL, GA, MS, TN, SC, WY, WY-B
If the election were tommorrow we would pick up 4 seats. However, this would give Mitch McConnell and the RSCC some degree of satisfaction. Those bastards think that only losing 4 seats is some show of victory. This might be true taken in the context of 2008’s political landscape. We have to beat them, and that means gaining at least 5 seats.
I know we need to pick up one or two more, but I’m not sure which ones should be targets. My gut feeling tells me that Musgrove, Allen, Begich and Merkley have the best chance of toss-up race. I don’t think that Kay Hagan or Al Franken have a chance. Dole is just too strong a candidate and I don’t think Franken has an appealing background (it is MN, so I guess anythings possible). I’m not sure what the rest of you think, but the races in Maine, Alaska, Mississippi and Oregon are on my list of important races.
Also, I’m seriously let down by Noriega. He’s a great candidate but he doesn’t have a chance unless he raises 4 or 5 million in the next few months. What a shame.
I think North Carolina is likley to flip and am not sure how popular Senator Dole is. North Carolina has a history of throwing out conservative Republicans and replacing them with Democrats, sometimes even liberal ones (ie, Broyhill to Sanford, Faircloth to Edwards).
So I’d hardly call Rasmussen the outlier. Last SUSA poll on MN gave Dems a 1% democratic voter edge. That is just ridiculous. Most other pollsters give Dems at minimum a 8-10% edge in voters. If you think Coleman is really up by more than 5 points you’re nuts.
I’d like to hear more about the Oklahoma contest. Rice is a very good candidate. Inhofe is waaaaaay right. And the state does elect Democrats to statewide office (including the present governor). Rice believes that the state isn’t as hard-core right as the rest of the nation often thinks it is, and that a moderate Democrat has a shot against a fanatical conservative, especially in what has the potential to turn into a big Democratic year.
I’m not saying Rice will win. He’s still the underdog. But it seems to me he’s got a shot, and the political payoff would be huge. A June Research 2000 poll had Inhofe’s reelect number at 39%, and most people don’t yet know who Rice is.
Certainly a “race to watch,” I’d think.
The MN DFL probably has at least a 10% voter indentification advantage over the GOP atm. If 2006 was an indicator (winning 19 state house seats) then the DFL is on the rise and it makes the SurveyUSA poll really flawed.
It’s kind of sad that it’s being touted all over the place as the downfall for Franken while the Rasmussen poll is being completely ignored.
The race is certainly within the single digits, probably no more than an 8% deficit for Franken all the way up to a few point lead for Franken. That would be my estimate for where the race is.
The most recent polls still show Begich leading narrowly
Research 2000 Poll
Stevens (R) 45 (43)
Begich (D) 47 (48)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
But with two competing polls, why should we take one any more seriously than the other? I still think the difference could be nine points.
in my opinion, they are a bit too conservative. I would rank them
Republican Seats:
Safe D
1. Virginia
Likely D
2. New Mexico
Leans D
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
Tossup
5. Alaska
6. Mississippi-B
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
Leans R
9. North Carolina
10. Maine
Likely R
11. Kentucky
and Louisiana is leans D
Warner still holds a massive lead.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Warner (D)- 57
Gilmore (R)- 34
Favorable/Unfavorables:
Warner – 66/28
Gilmore – 47/44
Crazy as it sounds I think Gilmore has peaked. Warner has a ridiculous cash advantage and once he starts to really spend it should drive up Gilmore’s unfavorables.
Colorado rated ahead of New Hampshire. I know Udall doesn’t poll as well as Shaheen, but Schaffer is a dunce who is a walking scandal. Sununu is much too conservative for his state, but he’s still a very competent campaigner, remember this is the same guy who beat an incumbent senator and governor in the same cycle.
I would call it a top tier race right now. The DCCC has put a million into the district and Teague is rich enough that he can self fund. I would say we have a 50-50 chance of winning.
This one is going to move in to tossup in a hurry. Smith’s VERY negative campaigning has been backfiring–manifesting it Merkley’s rise in the polls and increased fundraising.
Merkley has begun to raise his profile. Making a point to visit 100 towns in Oregon–getting excellent write-ups in every hometown newspaper. Oregon’s wide swath of independent voters will feel good about voting for him because of his background, experience and obvious intelligence.
The “tax and spend liberal” line isn’t working here–and Smith keeps pushing it. His campaign lacks spark–and Smith is being criticized for essentially sleepwalking through the process.
I also wonder if the negative campaigning isn’t tarnishing Smith’s “affable” image as well.